Migrant Crisis Validates Golden Horde Theory Fears

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There are conventional buzzwords that many preppers know and spout off about more often than other terms in the course of our conversations about the reasons for certain plans and preparations. “SHTF”, is probably the most commonly used and widely known of these terms even outside the world of prepping. The “Grid going down”, is likely a close second due in no small part to its use in many areas of society, most commonly when we are talking about the electric grid; as in If the electric “grid goes down” you are screwed. The Golden Horde theory is much less known I think than many of the other terms, but its application or maybe the ramifications of this theory could affect your prepping plans just as severely in the right circumstances.

I have written about the Golden Horde theory before but the latest chapter in our ongoing migrant crisis has brought this to the forefront again for me. As I wrote last year, the golden horde is a concept that as far as I can tell was introduced by James Wesley Rawles. I do respect Mr. Rawles – have several of his books in my prepper library and I have been going to his website for years. Mr. Rawles is the writer of several prepper fiction novels (Patriots, Survivors), and probably the first survival book I ever read How to Survive the End of the World As We Know it . He is also the owner of the popular survivalblog.com website and we were even fortunate enough to have an interview with James Wesley Rawles on the Prepper Journal almost a year ago exactly.

Mr. Rawles’ golden horde theory has been the subject of many conversations and some fierce debate as well. I know of a few prepping bloggers who simply do not agree with Mr. Rawles on this subject. I tried to state my own rationale behind my beliefs in that previous article just to weigh in and add my own two cents to the argument. In case you were wondering, I wholeheartedly agree with Mr. Rawles’ Golden Horde theory and believe we are actually witnessing the proof right now on a level that many didn’t expect when they were busy knocking a “prepper fiction writer” for promoting it.


The golden horde theory (in my paraphrased version) says that if we have a TEOTWAKI type of event, the major population centers will soon see a mass exodus of people out of the cities and into the surrounding countryside because the cities will be unlivable. The thinking will be to head to the countryside where there is more room, less violence, more food and a safer existence than in the cities. This means that many of us could face a huge influx of people into our towns and neighborhoods who are walking through who might be looking for assistance, an opportunity to work, barter, steal or acting in desperation to protect their own families.

The Golden Horde Theory is happening right now

There are detractors who say that people won’t flee cities for various reasons. They will either be too lazy or trapped by congested roads so they will stay put, but you only have to look at the news to see how utterly wrong that assumption is. We don’t even have TEOTWAWKI as many have imagined it and yet hundreds of thousands of people are streaming out of cities right now. They are leaving countries and boarding boats, hopping on freight trains and walking (who knew that was possible) away from areas that are dangerous or decaying and heading into new territories. If thousands of people moving around the world seeking a better, safer place aren’t a horde, I don’t know what is.


I will concede that you could say they are leaving one city for another city, but the ramifications are the same regardless of their final destination. The news is filled with images of migrants swarming train stations, walking along highways and crossing border fences lined with razor wire. There are reports of fights breaking out with police and thefts of vehicles by people desperate to get to a final destination far away from where their journey originated. There have been deaths of people crossing treacherous waters in boats that are grossly overloaded and all of this is happening right now in other parts of the world from us. Do you really believe that given drastic circumstances here, that the same type of thing would not happen?

Since the dawn of time, people have migrated for various reasons. We specifically talk about having a bug out bag ready at all times in the off-chance you need to grab your family and walk out the door in an emergency. When that happens, you will be a migrant too. You might have a place to go and there might not be hundreds of thousands of others with you amassed in a train station, but the golden horde theory isn’t prepper fiction. It’s not only possible; it is a reality that right now may be limited to Africa and Europe but could affect you before you know it.

What does the potential for the Golden Horde mean to me?

We routinely talk about the Golden Horde theory as it relates to people migrating into your area. This has been addressed in fictional books such as One Second After when the town of Asheville, NC disgorged thousands into nearby Black Mountain to relieve the strain on their food supply. The small town in this novel had to implement a plan to keep people from flooding into town that created another crisis at the highway and led to the inevitable surge of people rushing the check point, evading the law enforcement and moving through the woods to gain access to what they saw as safety within the confines of the overburdened city.GoldenHorde3

I can easily see this happening in my neighborhood under the right conditions. People could be migrating through after some disaster on their way to other locations. They might walk past or they might try to get in through any barricades or neighborhood defensive positions we are manning. At some point, just like the border of Hungary a large enough group of people will get past you. If that happens you may be forced to leave your home or defend whatever you have for as long as you can. You may be able to run everyone off, but have you considered the different avenues into your neighborhood? Have you considered what you would do if your family was starving and you saw undefended homes in a town along your way?

The flip side of this that I haven’t heard anyone talking about really is that you could be the migrants affected by some crisis. If you are forced to bug out for your family’s safety, you will likely be walking on the roads or through woods to get to safety. Will you have the supplies you need to deal with the weather conditions at the time? Will you be able to find shelter in the woods? Will you have paperwork needed to cross borders potentially? I know you think we would never need to leave the US, but just imagine something happened where you were forced to leave. Would you have the necessary paperwork? Does everyone in your family have a passport and is it up to date?

The migrant crisis for me is very tragic on many levels. I don’t know the reasons or motivations for all of the people who we see in the media, but I know that what they are doing now is the closest I have seen in my life to people living in a way we say we are prepared for. They have bugged out and they carry their meager possessions on their backs. This could be us or we could be the people watching as a crowd rambles down our street. This isn’t fiction. Are you prepared to be the migrant? Are you prepared for migrants going through your city or neighborhood? Something to think about.

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Freedom-loving American doing what I can to help prepare and inform others. Editor and creator of The Prepper Journal 2013-2017, 2020 -

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northern raider

Let me make this ABSOLUTELY 100% CLEAR, there are NO GENUINE REFUGEES in Europe. The GENUINE refugees from Syria and Northern Iran are all in Turkey, Jordan and Lebanon, All these mainly fit young men of fighting age pouring unchecked into Europe are just ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS just like the Southern and Central Americans that cross your Rio Grande. Next point the idiot closet Socialist Frau Merkel has invited 800,000 to I,000,000 of these illegal immigrants to come to Europe, now they have started arriving in large numbers she is screaming Germany cannot cope and wants other EU states to take… Read more »


Sorry, but they’re not “mainly fit young men of fighting age.”

I live in Belgrade, Serbia. We have Syrian migrants here, camped out in a park next to the train & bus stations. I’ve seen them with my own eyes. They’re families – men, women, and children of all ages.

Some photos of what their camps look like these days:


northern raider

Just watch Sky news, BBC , Fox or al Jaz to see most are fit young men, and less than 35% of them are actually Syrian.


A more realistic version is seeing people desecrating Christian graveyards. Saudi Arabia has room for 3 million in air conditioned, powered & plumbed accommodations for pilgrims only used one week a year but took ZERO refugees. The refugees are more fighting age men than the US ARMY.


We should not let in the very people who cheered 911 and gave out candy to their children and partied in the streets when we were attacked. Let them stew in their own islamic self-hatred.

Pat Henry

NR, I don’t disagree with you that these people are not moving across Europe from the direct result of some disaster. I have my own doubts about the real cause of this exodus just like I didn’t really believe that all of a sudden tens of thousands of people from our Southern border and below started traveling North. I don’t know exactly why they are coming, but they are coming. My point is that regardless of reason, people do mass migrate on foot if they have to. When that happens, these people will pour into regions that weren’t expecting them… Read more »


Moslems pass by 47 moslem nations not at war to get on German welfare that is better than they could earn on merit in their homeland only to demand GERMANS STOP SERVING BEER, Sausage, Music, & having clothing optional beaches.


The “Golden Horde” theory works well in Europe. They have excellent mass transit, and Europe itself is smaller than the US. It is “easy” to navigate to Turkey from Syria, then from Turkey around the Adriatic to the underbelly of Europe itself. At present weather plays a HUGE role in this mass migration of men. I agree with Northern Raider, that the vast majority of “immigrants” are males(highly suspicious) with dubious “papers” or documentation at best.Are they actually “fleeing” religious oppression or, are they plants for the Islamofacists? At present, I choose the majority are of the latter category. Europe… Read more »

northern raider

So my friend, when the TV PICTURES and media reports of how the MILLIONS of migrants defeated our border security, crossed the Mediterranean, walked straight through multiple nations borders, tore down border fences etc. What happens when the Impoverished of Central and Southern America realise the way forward is not SNEAKING into the US in 1s and 2s but to supply walk across the border in their THOUSANDS with the front rows of the mob all carrying children and babies and they make sure every TV channel in the world is present !!


While I have personally witnessed the infamous border “banzai charges” in San Diego County, when they were the local “immigrant” thing-to-do. Yes, those were mainly families with children in tow, and about half of the “charge-brigades” were young men. They stomped on, pushed the women and children out of the way, with no regard for any injuries that occurred to the women and kids. It was disgusting. I lived most of my life in my native California prior to moving out a few years back. I personally witnessed the massive demographic shift in population in my native state, and again,… Read more »


I think the point of the article is that the golden horde can arise from a variety of conditions and the direction of travel may or may not be predictable. In the present case, these hundreds of thousands of economic migrants (soon to be millions) are responding to incentives created by a suicidal EU. What we have seen and are seeing on our own southern border certainly does not qualify as a horde on any given day, but when you tally the numbers over a period of years, 20 million illegal aliens is an invasion, just the same. Being a… Read more »

Pat Henry

You got it Bolo. That was the point I was trying to get across.


Well, I misread the “point” obviously. I do feel strongly that the issue with OUR southern border is not comparable to what is happening at present in the Eurozone. Unlike Bolo, I can see a scenario in the near future where the US is inundated by entire families fleeing the economic/cartel warfare occurring in all of Mexico’s border states with the US. I don’t blame them at all, I would want to get MY family the heck out of Mexico as well for a better life. I would be far more concerned about the “Golden Hordes” fleeing the national metro… Read more »

northern raider

remember that huge numbers of these people have hoofed it most of the way ON FOOT from places like Afghanistan, Somalia, Ethiopia. Many have crossed the SAHARA or parts of the Himalayas and many have crossed the MED to get to Turkey or Greece before pouring in huge numbers into the EU


Right on. And they are all heading for “free stuff.”


The Eurozone’s FSA. “Free stuff” has always drawn the leeches of society more than the productive members, no matter the ethnic, religious, political demographic.


At least with non moslems there was a chance they would appreciate it, but moslems expect non moslems to provide jizya even when they rape & behead citizens.


I would beg to digger slightly that MOST of these refugees/immigrants did NOT cross the Sahara, nor the Himalayan mountains, nor have a great number crossed the entire Mediterranean. Small parts of the above, as in SMALL parts, yes, but let’s not forget our geography. Some of these folks have hopscotched from their points of origin, and many have been transported by various Islamofacist “charitable” organizations, under the guise of being “refugees”. (see open source State Department reporting)

northern raider

I did not say that MOST of them had crossed the Sahara, I said they have travelled MOST of the way on foot.


“The key is transportation.”

and that is where the “teotwawki golden horde” concept fails.

Central European Citizen

Winter will not slow the migration, it will cause more suffer, more pain, more and more death on the Aegean Sea and in the snowy mountains of Macedonia, that is all. This story already has happened centuries ago with the Byzantine Empire, at this time it will be much more faster.



I do hope that you are incorrect. Not that I ideologically disagree, but I do see that people are human after all, and I don’t see them en masse, risking it in the wicked winter weather of Europe and the Balkans. Perhaps we will both be incorrect.


I could only imagine a horde of fighting age Muslim males trekking through Wyoming.

They are the enemy and no quarter would be shown.
Violence would be returned with interest.

Not all places are going to be tolerant of a religion, that is at odds with the home teams personal beliefs.


We can only hope a Vlad Tepes cleans up Europe in time to visit it again.


I don’t see the Islamists slogging their way across the Continental Divide in Wyoming or any part of Wyoming at all. They seem to only congregate in areas where their numbers are fairly high in proportion to the native populace here in the USA. Twin Cities is a great example. Not going to be a lot of them living a “quiet” rural Minnesota lifestyle in the hinterlands of Minnesota an d other areas. Wouldn’t expect them to suddenly take up a large goat ranch in Texas either. Not in the Islamist “life style”.


You would be surprised what comes through I-80…… It is the pathway to the left coast and the East Coast.


Not really, we aren’t that far OFF the I-80 in our state just to the west of Wyoming. I see “them” all the time. I do believe that in a SHTF situation, travel will be extremely localized depending entirely upon the country’s infrastructure being intact and the fuel supply. Otherwise, there will be pedestrians and few of those will have the gumption to make it all that far. Human traffickers smuggling in folks from MExico already have their smuggling infrastructure in place, which allows for the faster movement of the illegals throughout the USA. If the power grid is down… Read more »


LWJ, there’s nothing in WY, ID, or MT that any golden horde types would want. Austere living conditions on a good day, downright daunting when the world goes to shiz.

Honestly, the mountain states all the way down to northern AZ/NM are generally on their own if things go bad. Where’s a Golden Horder going to go? Some will head to the mountains, hoping for a shot at a stocked hunting cabin in the woods, but the majority have to know they’d be screwed if they did it.


I am not worried about them trying to settle here, but being stuck here. I-80 is the gateway to the coasts and if it is down, then those people become a problem. Confused, hungry, and stranded these people will do what it takes to survive. The damage that a few thousand DP’s can do in a few days is not to be underestimated.


Agreed. With a very small, dispersed native populace, coordination between farms/ranches will be critical. Even a bakers’ dozen could give cause real problems for isolated family farm types.

northern raider
Central European Citizen

True! I have first hand experiences, only 20-30% of the migrants are families the wast majority is young man. At this were moment they are pouring to the EU, 3-4 thousand person per a day through Croatia and Hungary, and at least half of them could avoid the registration.

Mike Lashewitz

This will happen and Obastard is importing the trouble as well. Genocide was planned by the Elite to remove 6.5 billion lives IN ANY WAY POSSIBLE. Geo engineering, vaccines, vaccine induced sterilization, race wars, religious wars, droughts, famine, disease caused by vaccines, in any way they can….

Central European Citizen

I have been reading this site from the beginnings, and never ever imagined that I will see photos from the train station in my hometown, or the road I use on my daily commute. The Prepper Journal was among the few US sites I gather some information, it was so american far far from my world, at least I felt like that. Time changed new era has just begun.

northern raider, I fully agree!

northern raider

Want to see what the Muslims Actually think, just listen to the women near the end “Shot across the bow in Jersey City: “We’re going to be the majority soon,”



The theoretical “golden horde”, How long do you all think it takes? 3 days? A week? A year? 2 years? how about 16 million + in 10 years? Welcome to the US.


a better question is, “how long could it last?” this puts the issue in a much more actionable view.


That was part of my point expressed above (perhaps not as clearly as you have managed to do here). The EU is getting a lot of attention and heartburn because the numbers of migrants is overwhelmingly

Thomas Paine in the butt

Dammit Pat. That walking(who knew that was possible) bit almost made me spray coffee all over the screen.

If I’m forced to bug out and be the migrant my thoughts on the Golden Horde is to react to it like a tornado in a trailer park, move at a 90° angle to major flow of travel.

Maybe I can get lucky and trade my services for sanctuary or find a hole in the woods. In any event I don’t want to be part of the crowd.

Pat Henry

Sorry Thomas, that one just hit me as I was writing it. Glad someone at least got the joke!


northern raider

today the EU leadership says ” we are doomed if we don’t stop the Islamists pouring into Europe”



I too am critical of the golden horde view. the present “refugees” to which you refer are able to make their journey at all (successfully or not) precisely because teotwawki has not yet occurred.


The idea here is that the islamic infiltration of Europe via a made-up refuge crisis illustrates that if a suitable genesis event occurs, whether made-up, gov’t initiated, or foreign aggression will spur folks of all types to flee crisis/danger. On a smaller, and much slower scale, you can look to the so-called “White flight” from urban centers to more suburban or even rural areas to avoid crime, violence, and decay. Whether its starvation and crime in the city, or fleeing the suburbs after an attack on the city center matters not. People will flee in the direction of perceived safety,… Read more »


I’m just thinking out loud here, I wonder about the traditional “refugee historical behavior” that has been in Europe all along while here in the US, it is relatively a “novel” mindset, affects a family’s decision to start out? Past historical reviews don’t seem to explore that behavioral decision making process, other than fleeing for religious or ethnic reasons. Like recently the refugees that fled the Balkan ethnic cleansing that occurred all along religious/ethnic lines? Same thing or “reasoning” appears to be the main reason for the alleged “Syrian Refugee Crisis”,and I would assume that the Islaamists are using the… Read more »

northern raider

Here you go Americans, most of you claim to be good Christians, well this is what tolerant peace loving Islam has waiting for y’all


any idea where these Children are now? Now that they are Grown Up? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7zgL48-3Y4c&spfreload=10

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